So, what is the world of publishing going to look like in 10 years? I don’t know for sure, but I have a few ideas.
There will be a standard e-reader format. And it will be Apple. Sorry Kindle lovers (who knows? Maybe Kindle will run on the Apple platform then). Apple is just so darn sexy, how can consumers help it? Apple runs their music; iPod has become the household name for MP3 player like Kleenex is for nose tissue and BandAid is for bandages. And just like there are different sizes of iPod, books will be read on different sizes of book players, from iPad to iPod to iPhone. I will read mine on my iPhone.
There will still be print books because my mom buys them by the truckload. She consumes those things like pirated TV shows, except that she spends a fortune. Her cohorts do the same, so I imagine that veracious readers of a certain babyboom-shaped demographic are going to want their printed books.
The printed book will last at least as long as the babyboomers, and at least as long as there is Christmas. EBooks make terrible gifts. Square, physical books are easy to wrap and make the giver feel like they are giving something of substance. Printed books are here to stay.
There will be major restructuring in the big publishing houses. Some might collapse, but this economy isn’t great for industries that already have small profit margins, especially when they can’t buffer sales with strong backlists or academic sales. Right now, they’re coughing up blood by focusing on this minute’s bestseller, but like the shallow blockbuster movie fad, people are going to get tired of cheap thrills. There’s going to be a literary backlash felt through the big houses, while the literature is being produced by small publishers, like the movie industry with the resurgence of independent films. Then it will cycle back through when indie becomes mainstream (ie Away We Go).
And I might be there. I might be your boss. I might bring you coffee. Or I might just sell out.
Time will tell.
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